Title: India-Pakistan Ceasefire: A Step Towards Lasting Peace?




Introduction


The relationship between India and Pakistan has always been strained and could tip towards a war at any moment over significant disagreements, primarily concerning Kashmir. They are both nuclear-armed countries. Throughout the years, ceasefire agreements or truces have allowed, albeit temporarily, silky smooth relations between the two countries, agitated and strained over the years. One of the recent ceasefire agreements in February 2021 was termed as a reduction in hostilities along the Line of Control (LoC). But how effective is this ceasefire, and what does it mean for peace in the entire region? 


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Historical Background


Since their partition in 1947, India and Pakistan have fought three full-scale wars and engaged in several military skirmishes. The Kashmir region has been the central flashpoint. The 2003 ceasefire agreement, though initially successful, stood the test of time with difficulty and led to non stop cross border firing and civilian and military losses. 


Routine disregard for the ceasefire had become the norm by the mid 2010s. In 2020, the Indian government put forth a staggering figure of 5000 ceasefire violations resulting in loss of life and displacement.


2021 Ceasefire Agreement


In a joint statement that showcased cooperation, the Directors General of Military Operations (DGMO) of both countries issued a mutual statement to observe the 2003 ceasefire in February 25, 2021. The statement showcased efforts to deal with each other’s core issues which indicates that relations might be improving.


The agreement did not come up in a vacuum. It was seen as a result of backchannel negotiations which were allegedly facilitated through 3rd countries such as the UAE as well as international interests, particularly due to the COVID-19 pandemic and the relative need for calm in the region.


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Impact and Significance


1. Reduction in Violence: One of the notable changes was a drastic reduction in breach of ceasefire. Civilians living within the border region reported a noticeable decline in bombardment which permitted a return to prewar atmosphere.


2. Diplomatic Engagement: While formal negotiations were not initiated as a result of the ceasefire, communication was reestablished. During this phase, there was a temporary softening of public statements and debates regarding business and humanitarian lavish policies such as prisoner and medical visa releases.


3. Regional Stability: At a time when both states were under domestic and international pressure, such as India’s border clashes with China and Pakistan’s economic turmoil, the ceasefire served as an additional layer of stability.


Challenges and Limitations  


While there are favorable indicators, the ceasefire continues to be fragile. Important matters remain:  


Dispute over Kashmir: The primary conflict regarding Kashmir continues to be unsolved. The revocation of Article 370 in 2019 resulting in India’s Jammu and Kashmir losing its special status, exacerbated the situation further.  


Terrorism: Pakistan is continuously accused by India of sponsoring border terrorism, while India is blamed for human rights abuses in Kashmir by Pakistan. These allegations serve as hurdles for enduring conversations.  


Eager to Act Politically: Bold measures to foster peace between the countries is politically risky considering both regimes are pressured by nationalists.  


Military Posturing: Significant troop deployments are maintained by both countries, along with infrastructure bordering the LoC, thus keeping the region on high alert.  


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Public Sentiment and Media Role  


Citizens from either country can significantly affect public perception. Nationalists narratives have been an obstacle to peace initiatives and are escalated, particularly during elections. Media coverage not only shifts attention towards hostilities, but also acts as an obstacle for political leaders advocating for constructive dialogue.  


On the other hand, there remain steadfast proponents from civil society, academia and culture who advocate for peace, especially through transnational art, music and cross-border contact.


International Perspective


Estimated Global Perspectives envisions a peaceful South Asia a prerequisite for the region’s security. The U.S., China, the EU, and regional groupings like SAARC have persistently provided encouragement for bilateral dialogue. The ceasefire was largely welcomed internationally, perceived as one of the few constructive developments in an enduring conflict. 


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The Way Forward


In order for the ceasefire to transcend a mere temporary halting of hostilities, several actions are required:


1. Sustained Diplomatic Engagement: Establishing routine contact across diverse quarters such as military, civil, and diplomatic are imperative at all levels.



2. CBMs (Confidence Building Measures): These measures brutalize the conflict and incite trust through the resumption of the people exchanges, trade, and travel.



3. Third Party Facilitation: Both nations insist on a bilateral approach to resolving the conflict,without constraints fosters pace. Unobtrusive facilitation by neutral third parties tend to provide endurance for deadlock resolutions while sustaining the progress. 

 


4. Supporting Domestic Politics: Leadership needs to approach the narrative constructed to appeal electoral for peace instead hostility for gains.